Jamie Smart

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Lady Gaga

Navigating in times of Uncertainty, Complexity and Chaos – Part Two

Posted on September 27, 2012 by Dzidek Sabat

"What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipient."

– Herbert Simon

 

Photo courtesy of ama_lia

In part one of this article, we explored the three “waves of transformation” that have shaped humanity over the last 10,000 years and created the modern world. The agricultural revolution, the industrial revolution and the information revolution have seen us evolve from hunter-gatherer bands to the technologically-enhanced, “instant access” societies we live in today. But with that increase in speed, complexity and information-abundance comes a new set of challenges. In this article, we'll be exploring the 4th wave, and looking at how understanding this new paradigm can help you navigate in times of uncertainty, complexity and chaos.

 

Signs of the 2nd wave ebbing and the 3rd wave growing
As the current wave grows in strength, the previous wave starts to ebb and signs of the next wave begin to arrive. Here are some of the signals that let us know the 3rd wave (Information Revolution) is growing and the the 2nd wave (Industrial Revolution) is ebbing:

– Manufacturing is being outsourced to factories in places like China that can deliver similar quality at a fraction of the cost due to a large, lower waged workforce

– Internet and telecomms connectivity are allowing European and North American companies to outsource more & more knowledge work to well-educated, highly motivated workforces in India.

– Manufacturing processes have been refined to a very high level. Mass-produced goods are becoming more and more of a commodity, like smoke alarms, butter or baked beans.

– Competitive advantage shifts from manufacturing-strength to knowledge-strength, supported by IT, telecomms and culture (with all it encompasses); employee engagement, talent management, customer loyalty and brand-value.

– Huge institutions that formed the foundation of the industrial age are downsizing radically as their leverage point moves from “mass labour and machines” to “knowledge”.

– The speed of communication and access to information has massively accelerated over the past 70 years. Five billion people now carry mobile phones and 3 billion have access to email.

– Information technology means that much of the work previously done by employees of large organisations is now carried out by their customers (ATMs / Cashpoints, booking flights, online shopping etc).

As waves collide
So what's the impact of this rise and fall we're experiencing? Here are some of the more significant patterns we're experiencing:

– Attention-poverty: The massive rise in availability of information (enabled by an exponential increase in the speed of communication) means that people's attention is being consumed at an ever-increasing rate. For example, the fact that you're reading this article means that you've prioritised it over the plethora of other information-streams competing for your attention in this moment.

– Time-scarcity: As attention is consumed, people's experience of available time shrinks. While there are still the same number of seconds in each day, people's minds are busy, clogged with junk-thought (the mental equivalent of nutrition-free food). Time-scarcity isn't a lack of minutes in the day; it's a reduction in the experience of the richness of life from moment to moment.

– Mind-maintenance: Just as factory-workers need to keep their machines clean and well-oiled, knowledge-workers, managers and leaders need to take similar care of their minds. Individuals and businesses are paying the price as time-scarcity and attention-poverty clog the “mental machinery” they rely on with junk-thought.

– Mental Congestion: In fact, the over-revved, congested mind is one of the biggest problems we face in the modern world. Clogged with everything from breaking news and social media to fears, anxieties and limiting beliefs, the congested, speedy mind is the single biggest contributor to stress, lack of confidence, bad decisions, strained relationships, fumbled goals and unrealised potential.

– Connection-starvation: Human beings are wired for connection, to each other and to life as a whole. Connection and intimacy emerge naturally when there's nothing else in the way. And what gets in the way? Junk-thought. As the 3rd wave rises, and the surface-connections of social media become more prevalent, people are starving for intimacy and genuine connection.

– Values-focus: 2nd wave institutions and “jobs for life” took care of many basic needs for people, providing a sense of purpose, belonging and security. The 3rd wave is seeing a focus on other values, such as freedom, adventure, independence, personal growth, connection and contribution. As people live these values (moving away from large organisations, starting their own businesses, doing location-independent work etc), they feel the desire for the sense of security, belonging and purpose that was previously provided for by the 2nd wave structures.

– Outside-in misunderstanding: This widespread misunderstanding attributes our security, resilience and wellbeing to external circumstances. While numerous studies prove this is not the case, the conditioning is very persistent. As such, it is the most prevalent source of junk-thought on the planet.

Early signs of the 4th wave
Remember; each “wave” solves existing problems, while creating new possibilities, new benefits and new challenges. Solutions to the new problems are delivered by the next wave.

The “advance signals” of the 4th wave started arriving in the late 19th century with the birth of the field of psychology. The business world was quick to embrace psychology for commercial purposes, using it to influence public opinion, customers and employees alike.

Over the past 40 years, the signals have been arriving more and more quickly:

– The rise of the human potential movement in the 1970s

– Identification of the need for “emotional intelligence” in the workplace

– The desire for authenticity, integrity and transparency in the companies we do business with

– Huge focus in business on identifying and developing the qualities of leadership.

– The simplicity movement, building on disillusionment with the undelivered promises of the consumer-culture.

– Positive psychology and recent trends in personal development.

– The trend towards “experience economy” consumption (eg. Starbucks coffee and sofas, Lady Gaga concerts, Build-a-bear workshop etc)

 

Understanding the nature of thought
The 1st, 2nd and 3rd waves have each been driven by understanding:

1st wave – understanding of farming / agriculture
2nd wave – understanding of mechanisation / industry
3rd wave – understanding of information / digitisation / computerisation

The deeper our understanding of the “leverage point” within a given wave, the more power we have to create value.

Most people these days would concede that their thinking has some part to play in their experience of life. The advance signals of the 4th wave have seen people try to influence their thinking in a variety of ways. As people start to see that thought plays a role in their experience, it's natural that they would try and use it to influence that experience.

But while people have correctly identified that thought is an incredibly powerful leverage point, the real power comes from understanding the nature of thought.

4th wave – understanding of thought

Thought is the leverage point within the 4th wave. Our understanding of the nature of thought, and the role it plays in 100% of our experience is the key to unlocking the value inherent in the wave.

As a society, we currently have a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of thought, and the role it plays in our experience of life. As we see through that misunderstanding, as individuals, as businesses and as an entire civilisation, an extraordinary transformation in our experience becomes possible.

And how do we see through that misunderstanding, and deepen our understanding of the nature of thought?

In part three of this article, we'll be exploring CLARITY (the source of realisational wealth), and the role it plays in the experience economy.

This entry was posted in Evolution, Innate Thinking, The Fourth Wave, Understanding. Bookmark the permalink

Comments

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  1. Jean Kelly
    September 27, 2012 Reply

    Looking forward to Part 3!

    • Jamie Smart
      October 7, 2012 Reply

      Thanks Jean – part 3 is now live. Looking forward to reading your comments. Best J

  2. David Barrett
    September 27, 2012 Reply

    Enjoying the series, Jamie!
    Before, I think I was vaguely aware about much of what you wrote, but you’ve made it crystal clear.
    Just wondering, which are some of the studies which “prove” the validity of the Inside-Out model?

    • Jamie Smart
      October 7, 2012 Reply

      Thanks David – I’m not aware of any study which has set out to “prove the validity of the inside-out model” per se.There are various studies which show that our security, resilience and wellbeing aren’t affected (in a causal way) by external circumstances. One of the studies that comes readily to mind is this one: “Lottery Winners and Accident Victims: Is Happiness Relative?” published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. It shows that for the 2 groups in the study (people who had big wins on the lottery, and people who had been seriously injured in accidents), the “circumstantial event” didn’t have a long-term effect on their wellbeing, despite potentially massive operational impact on their day-to-day circumstances. Hope this helps! Thanks again for posting, Big love, J

  3. Rob
    September 27, 2012 Reply

    A little out of date with the manufacturing, there are growing signs that manufactures are shifting production back to the west, especially as costs in China have risen, the competitive advantage has been lost, the same could be said for outsourcing to India, companies have found out to their cost that customers prefer to talk to people from their own country , so more call centres are being brought back, all this is known as on shoring and it will become very big news in the next few years, don’t get taken in by the China illusion, many were caught out by the Pacific Tiger in the 90’s

    • Jamie Smart
      October 7, 2012 Reply

      Hi Rob – thanks for posting. While there are always changes in the tide, I’d be surprised if China & India’s economic power bubbles anytime soon. I may be wrong, but the direction of the waves is still the same – always forward! Thanks again, J

  4. franco s
    September 27, 2012 Reply

    Reading your article Jamie only strengthens my resolve to get out into this world more and help people to see their world differently. What’s interesting is that I’m noticing that what you say is true about people beginning to understand the importance & significance of thought and the ever increasing amount of info-overload. It puts me in mind of Edward Hallowell’s excellent & witty book “Crazybusy: Overstretched, Overbooked, and about to Snap!”

    I’ve been on the phone most of the day talking to a number of educational establishments about speaking around this subject to help their under/post graduates. What I didn’t anticipate was the incredibly positive response when I explained how I can serve them; I even had a couple of universities asking me how soon I can come in!

    The tide swell is growing; people are instinctively hungry for change, they just don’t yet understand how to manifest it. This is exactly where we as a community step in and serve….

    Roll on episode 3!

    • Jamie Smart
      October 8, 2012 Reply

      Right on, Franco – well done on getting out to the world of education. It seems to me that, while we can’t actually make waves, the ket is to learn to surf the waves that are rolling in. You’re doing just that by following your wisdom. Thanks for posting – speak soon. BML, J

  5. John Jenkinson
    September 27, 2012 Reply

    Its nice to know that we are changing as a species and that we have the potential be more in future. Puts it into a niece perspective and arouses thoughts that might not over wise be thought.

    • Jamie Smart
      October 8, 2012 Reply

      Thanks John – I’m not sure who your niece is, but it’s always nice to get a different perspective 😉 Thanks for posting, Best J

  6. Aleksonder
    September 27, 2012 Reply

    Thanks for sharing an interesting notion, Jamie, yet I have always considered the “understanding of power”, i.e. Energy to be this up and coming 4th wave. Still, I am open to hear of your conceptualized “understanding of thought”, how it significantly differentiates from “understanding of information” and what category you have labeled it under. So, please continue.

    • Jamie Smart
      October 8, 2012 Reply

      Hi Aleksonder, we may be pointing in the same direction, at least at a deep level. “Thought” is an expression of the energy behind life (if we’re talking in terms of string theory, quantum physics etc). If you’re talking about energy in a more commoditised sense (nuclear power plants, electrical grids etc), then that’s different – that’s already been central to the first 3 waves. Looking forward to seeing what you think as the series unfolds. Best J

  7. Dave Berman
    September 29, 2012 Reply

    Jamie, I got terrific insight from this piece. Junk thought adds a dimension to the spectrum of high/low quality thinking. Rather than a feeling telling me only how trustworthy, believable and useful a thought is, the feeling also registers the nutrition value of the thought. If it doesn’t feed my soul, it may be junk thought. This can remind me to stop spending so much time scrolling through Facebook updates!

    • Jamie Smart
      October 8, 2012 Reply

      I hear you, Dave 😉 In future articles, I’ll be expanding on what I mean by “junk thought”. Specifically, it’s any thought that’s grounded in the outside-in illusion (the idea that our security / wellbeing / happiness etc comes from outside of us). I’ve been amazed to see how much of my thinking is “sponsored” by this medieval superstition 🙂 Thanks for posting! Best, J

  8. Duff
    October 5, 2012 Reply

    What you are describing isn’t a 4th wave at all, but a set of problems and solutions that come with the 3rd wave. You are switching categories from modes of production to personal psychology when you go from the first 3 waves to your proposed 4th wave. The human potential movement, positive psychology, a desire for authenticity and transparency are all 3rd wave phenomena, brought about from the information age.

    • James D
      October 6, 2012 Reply

      A perceptive observation. I’m not sure, though, that all waves have to belong to the category of “modes of production”. Could it not be that once we have cracked the problems of tangible production, we move to waves which address intangible production and then to waves which address what all that production was *for*, viz being happy, contented, connected and so on – the stuff which is inside us, rather than outside us? I am not sure that “understanding of thought” is the best possible formulation of this 4th wave, but I think it’s pretty close to the mark and doesn’t warrant criticism as a category error.

      Indeed, if waves which are not about production of “outside us” stuff are to be disallowed, when *are* we going to get round to addressing the nature of the relationship between what’s outside us and what’s inside us?

      • Jamie Smart
        October 8, 2012 Reply

        Thanks James – well put. Looking forward to your comments on parts 3 & 4. Best J

      • Duff
        October 8, 2012 Reply

        Sure–that would still be a mode of production in my book, as long as the intangibles are bought and sold…as they are with software and all services. I do think economies are headed towards selling more and more intangibles–what is Facebook for instance? You can’t pick it up or put it in a store, etc. Of course these all fit the 3rd wave still, in terms of information technologies and services associated with them.

        We have always been addressing the nature of the relationship between what’s outside us and inside us–it’s called culture. I think what Jamie is describing is culture, not a 4th wave.

    • Jamie Smart
      October 8, 2012 Reply

      Thanks Duff – I respectfully disagree. Your argument could have been applied 70 years ago with the first signs of the information revolution (paraphrasing “you’re switching categories from modes of production to information about production”). It was the power of vision and imagination of people who could see that information would become a source of value in its own right that drove the 3rd wave. The idea of a 3rd wave looked like sci-fi as recently as the 1980s, but look at us now. One of the points I make in all of these articles is that a given wave creates the very problems that are solved by the next wave. I describe things such as the human potential movement, positive psychology etc not AS the 4th wave, but as “signals” of the 4th wave. As I’ll be describing in parts 3 & 4 of this series, the 4th wave itself will be driven by a paradigm shift in our understanding of thought and the mind. The early “signals” are like the early failed attempts at flight – noble efforts, but not grounded in the understanding of the principles necessary to give us wings. Thanks for posting, Duff – I look forward to your thoughts on the coming articles. Best, J

      • Duff
        October 8, 2012 Reply

        Well I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree.

        Waves 1, 2, and 3 were about modes of production–I think that is very clear. Wave 1 being agricultural, wave 2 being industrial, and wave 3 being information. The problems you’ve described are all 3rd wave problems–information overload, time scarcity, etc.

        If there is a coming 4th wave, I don’t think it will be about thought, more like the culmination of nanotech, biotech, genetic engineering, virtual reality, 3D printing, etc., where physical reality becomes plastic due to our incredible technology.

      • Duff
        October 8, 2012 Reply

        4th wave problems that come as a result of these things which many are predicting are stuff like 50% unemployment and a need to redesign the monetary system, when everything can be manufactured by a robot or nanobot for virtually free with no human labor at any stage.

        But we’ll see what happens–lots of potential ways it could go!

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